Predictions
IQUO brings innovation into DeFi market and introduces two types of exchange rate predictions:
signals, and
Predictions serve as building units of your vision. Depending on market situation and your outlook you might use one or another type of prediction, or a combination of them. Signals and quotes have following common parameters:
control time (we also use term expiration time for signals and snapshot time for quotes)
stake (fixed for signal and time-dependent for quote).
IQUO is aiming to develop natural and user-friendly prediction environment - for this purpose we have also developed graphical representation of signals and quotes:
signals are depicted as (green or red) horizontal flags, and
quotes are depicted as (orange) arrows.
As you see, signals can expire at any time, while quotes are always set for round closing deadlines (ie snapshot time). Vertical position of signals and quotes is determined by respective prediction rate. From the graph above you can infer that current expectations (time moment now) regarding exchange rate at the end of round n lie within interval (41,500 - 43,300), while expectations for the end of round n+1 have (42,500 - 43,700) limits. In terms of signals, the graph depict relative balance for both upward and downward expectations. Three red signals are already intersected (hit) by actual exchange rate curve - it means that these signals are triggered and will be rewarded.
Very generally, you'd prefer to create
signal if you are set to predict reaching specific exchange rate level within some timeframe, and
quote if you are set to predict exchange rate at rounds closings (ie snapshot times).
If we draw some analogy, then signals are pretty much like clay-pigeon shooting with a dispersed pattern, while quotes are rather fixed-target precision shooting with a single bullet.
Respectively, reward system for signals and quotes somewhat different: a) signals and quotes have different reward pools, and b) signals have relative rewards distribution while quotes have absolute assessment scale:
Parameter | Signal | Quote |
---|---|---|
reward criteria | signal is triggered | quotes with lowest prediction discrepancy |
maximum number of rewards per round | 20 | 3 |
sorting order | by challenge, descending | by discrepancy, ascending |
individual reward size | determined by relative weight of challenge (and status - for STOP signals) | determined by absolute value of discrepancy and stake (measured in tickets) |
round reward pool distribution | full distribution at every round closing | usually partial distribution (unless there made an ace); pool remainder is transferred to the next round |
special case: ace | n/a | when the best quote has discrepancy below 2%; full reward pool is paid to the best quote holder |
Visit Methodology section to know more about underlying modelling.
The list of winning predictions (signals and quotes) can be found on Rounds page.
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